Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 6 at the 81

Houston Texans 16 – Cleveland Browns 3

What Actually Happened

(8:14) 9-S.Lechler punts 57 yards to CLE 24, Center-46-J.Weeks. 22-J.Peppers to CLE 24 for no gain (52-B.Peters). PENALTY on CLE-10-S.Coates, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at CLE 24.

The Three Options

GO -1.96 EP

44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +1.42 EP
56% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 81, worth -4.58 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model