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CLE Away

Cleveland Browns

HC Hue Jackson
@
HOU Home

Houston Texans

HC Bill O'Brien
Sunday 2017-10-15 · 13:00 NRG Stadium, Houston US 🏟 Dome Spread 7.5 O/U 46.0

Win Probability

CLE
33.8%
HOU
66.2%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CLE offense: -0.095 EPA/play over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
  • HOU defense: -0.112 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • HOU offense: -0.048 EPA/play over its last 8 games (16th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • Deshaun Watson (HOU): +0.105 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

CLE 19
–
HOU 25
Projected margin: HOU by 6 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 6

CLE

James Burgess LB Doubtful Knee
Kenny Britt WR Questionable Knee
Shon Coleman T Questionable Knee
J.C. Tretter C Questionable Knee

HOU

Ben Heeney LB Out Knee
Kevin Johnson CB Out Knee
Corey Moore S Out Concussion
Jordan Todman RB Out Calf
Greg Mancz C Questionable Knee
Benardrick McKinney LB Questionable Hip

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 6 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CLE 17
–
HOU 33

Prediction missed by 10 pts on margin, 6 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:01 FG HOU (11:01) 7-K.Fairbairn 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler. CLE 0 – HOU 3
  • Q1 03:19 FG CLE (3:19) 5-Z.Gonzalez 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt. CLE 3 – HOU 3
  • Q1 00:48 TD HOU (:48) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass deep right to 15-W.Fuller V for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN [95-M.Garrett]. CLE 3 – HOU 9
  • Q2 11:23 TD HOU (11:23) (Shotgun) 8-K.Hogan pass short right intended for 29-D.Johnson INTERCEPTED by 24-J.Joseph at HOU 18. 24-J.Joseph for 82 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 3 – HOU 16
  • Q2 03:10 TD HOU (3:10) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short middle to 13-B.Miller for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 3 – HOU 22
  • Q3 10:17 SAF HOU (10:17) (Shotgun) 8-K.Hogan pass incomplete short middle [55-B.McKinney]. PENALTY on CLE-8-K.Hogan, Intentional Grounding, 6 yards, enforced in End Zone, SAFETY. Penalty on CLE, Illegal Formation, declined. CLE 3 – HOU 26
  • Q3 04:10 TD HOU (4:10) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short middle to 10-D.Hopkins for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 3 – HOU 32
  • Q4 13:40 TD CLE (13:40) 4-D.Watson pass deep left intended for 15-W.Fuller V INTERCEPTED by 30-J.McCourty [95-M.Garrett] at CLE 44. 30-J.McCourty for 56 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 9 – HOU 33
  • Q4 01:08 TD CLE (1:08) (Shotgun) 8-K.Hogan pass short left to 87-S.DeValve for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 16 – HOU 33

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 6 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 88%

    (11:01) 7-K.Fairbairn 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 7 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 29%

    (6:05) 4-B.Colquitt punts 47 yards to HOU 4, Center-47-C.Hughlett, downed by CLE-41-M.Jordan.

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 11 at the 97
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (5:00) 9-S.Lechler punts 41 yards to HOU 44, Center-46-J.Weeks. 22-J.Peppers pushed ob at HOU 27 for 17 yards (51-D.Cole).

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 6 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 88%

    (3:19) 5-Z.Gonzalez 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 6 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (8:14) 9-S.Lechler punts 57 yards to CLE 24, Center-46-J.Weeks. 22-J.Peppers to CLE 24 for no gain (52-B.Peters). PENALTY on CLE-10-S.Coates, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at CLE 24.

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 4 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (6:00) 4-B.Colquitt punts 51 yards to HOU 29, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 15-W.Fuller V.

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 10 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (2:47) 4-B.Colquitt punts 52 yards to HOU 23, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 15-W.Fuller V to HOU 43 for 20 yards (20-B.Boddy-Calhoun; 47-C.Hughlett).

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 18 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (1:54) 9-S.Lechler punts 49 yards to CLE 16, Center-46-J.Weeks. 22-J.Peppers to CLE 21 for 5 yards (28-A.Blue).

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (14:09) 4-B.Colquitt punts 61 yards to HOU 11, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 15-W.Fuller V to HOU 30 for 19 yards (56-D.King).

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 7 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 25%

    (11:46) 9-S.Lechler punts 50 yards to CLE 3, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by HOU-14-C.Thompson.

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 17 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23%

    (:27) 4-B.Colquitt punts 52 yards to HOU 5, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 14-C.Thompson to HOU 11 for 6 yards (40-D.Vitale).

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (12:10) 9-S.Lechler punts 49 yards to CLE 20, Center-46-J.Weeks. 22-J.Peppers to CLE 19 for -1 yards (52-B.Peters).

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 12 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (9:42) 4-B.Colquitt punts 52 yards to HOU 8, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 14-C.Thompson to HOU 20 for 12 yards (53-J.Schobert).

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 4 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (8:08) 9-S.Lechler punts 51 yards to CLE 23, Center-46-J.Weeks. 22-J.Peppers to CLE 34 for 11 yards (28-A.Blue).

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 4 at the 92 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52%

    (2:00) 9-S.Lechler punts 53 yards to CLE 39, Center-46-J.Weeks. 22-J.Peppers pushed ob at 50 for 11 yards (23-K.Drummond).