Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 4 at the 80

Cleveland Browns 3 – Houston Texans 16

(6:00) 4-B.Colquitt punts 51 yards to HOU 29, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 15-W.Fuller V.

The Three Options

GO -2.13 EP

48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +0.53 EP
52% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 80, worth -4.56 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model