4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 7 at the 72

Cleveland Browns 3 – Houston Texans 24

What Actually Happened

(14:09) 4-B.Colquitt punts 61 yards to HOU 11, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 15-W.Fuller V to HOU 30 for 19 yards (56-D.King).

The Three Options

GO -2.08 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.63 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 72, worth -4.30 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 30, worth -1.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model