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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 4 at the 69

Houston Texans 33 – Cleveland Browns 10

What Actually Happened

(12:10) 9-S.Lechler punts 49 yards to CLE 20, Center-46-J.Weeks. 22-J.Peppers to CLE 19 for -1 yards (52-B.Peters).

The Three Options

GO -1.23 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.49 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 69, worth -3.82 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.28 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 27, worth -1.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model