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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 12 at the 60

Cleveland Browns 10 – Houston Texans 33

What Actually Happened

(9:42) 4-B.Colquitt punts 52 yards to HOU 8, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 14-C.Thompson to HOU 20 for 12 yards (53-J.Schobert).

The Three Options

GO -1.43 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.73 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 60, worth -3.05 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.73 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 19, worth -0.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model