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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 4 at the 74

Houston Texans 33 – Cleveland Browns 10

What Actually Happened

(8:08) 9-S.Lechler punts 51 yards to CLE 23, Center-46-J.Weeks. 22-J.Peppers to CLE 34 for 11 yards (28-A.Blue).

The Three Options

GO -1.75 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +0.94 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 74, worth -4.39 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.80 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 32, worth -1.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model