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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 4 at the 92

Houston Texans 33 – Cleveland Browns 10

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 9-S.Lechler punts 53 yards to CLE 39, Center-46-J.Weeks. 22-J.Peppers pushed ob at 50 for 11 yards (23-K.Drummond).

The Three Options

GO -1.95 EP
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 88, worth +0.47 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 92, worth -4.56 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (109 yards).

PUNT -1.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 50, worth -1.69 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model