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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 1 at the 22

Detroit Lions 7 – New Orleans Saints 24

What Actually Happened

(6:44) 5-M.Prater 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-18-J.Locke.

The Three Options

GO +2.39 EP
Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.30 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 22, worth -1.25 EP
KICK +1.18 EP
What Happened
  • 89% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.55 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 32, worth -1.83 EP
PUNT -0.52 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.22 EP