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Detroit Lions

HC Jim Caldwell
@
NO Home

New Orleans Saints

HC Sean Payton
Sunday 2017-10-15 · 13:00 Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans US 🏟 Dome Spread 6.0 O/U 50.5

Win Probability

DET
28.7%
NO
71.3%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NO offense: +0.127 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • DET offense: -0.073 EPA/play over its last 8 games (21st in the league)
  • QB edge to NO: Drew Brees (NO) +0.142 vs Matthew Stafford (DET) -0.026 EPA/dropback
  • NO defense: +0.077 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • NO on 7 more days rest than DET
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

DET 21
–
NO 28
Projected margin: NO by 7 Projected total: 49

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 6

DET

Paul Worrilow LB Out Knee
T.J. Lang G Questionable Back
Matthew Stafford QB Questionable Ankle
Ezekiel Ansah DE Questionable Knee
Kenny Golladay WR Questionable Hamstring
Rick Wagner T Questionable Shoulder
Dwayne Washington RB Questionable Quadricep

NO

Terron Armstead T Questionable Shoulder
Andrus Peat G Questionable Hip
Willie Snead WR Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 6 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DET 38
–
NO 52

Prediction missed by 7 pts on margin, 41 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:10 TD NO (11:10) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford sacked at DET 0 for -4 yards (57-A.Okafor). FUMBLES (57-A.Okafor) [57-A.Okafor], RECOVERED by NO-32-K.Vaccaro at DET 0. TOUCHDOWN. DET 0 – NO 6
  • Q1 07:14 TD DET (7:14) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 15-G.Tate for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 8, YAC 37 DET 6 – NO 7
  • Q1 05:06 TD NO (5:06) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short left to 19-T.Ginn for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 5, YAC 15 The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. DET 7 – NO 13
  • Q1 00:09 FG NO (:09) 3-W.Lutz 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead. DET 7 – NO 17
  • Q2 10:50 TD NO (10:50) 22-M.Ingram left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on DET, Defensive Offside, declined. DET 7 – NO 23
  • Q2 06:44 FG DET (6:44) 5-M.Prater 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-18-J.Locke. DET 10 – NO 24
  • Q2 01:52 TD NO (1:52) 22-M.Ingram right guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 10 – NO 30
  • Q3 09:21 TD NO (9:21) 9-D.Brees pass short right to 84-M.Hoomanawanui for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 2, YAC 0 DET 10 – NO 37
  • Q3 08:42 TD NO (8:42) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left intended for 11-M.Jones INTERCEPTED by 23-M.Lattimore (91-T.Hendrickson) at DET 27. 23-M.Lattimore for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The ball was tipped at the line by #91 T.Hendrickson, and then intercepted by #23 M.Lattimore. DET 10 – NO 44
  • Q3 06:02 TD DET (6:02) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right to 11-M.Jones for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on NO-20-K.Crawley, Defensive Pass Interference, declined. Pass 22, YAC 0 DET 16 – NO 45
  • Q3 01:26 TD DET (1:26) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep middle to 87-D.Fells for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 23 – NO 45
  • Q4 11:15 TD DET (11:15) 6-T.Morstead punts 58 yards to DET 26, Center-49-Z.Wood. 39-J.Agnew for 74 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on DET-39-J.Agnew, Taunting, 15 yards, enforced between downs. DET 30 – NO 45
  • Q4 06:47 TD DET (6:47) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short right intended for 16-B.Coleman INTERCEPTED by 91-A.Robinson at NO 2. 91-A.Robinson for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 37 – NO 45
  • Q4 05:08 TD NO (5:08) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right intended for 85-E.Ebron INTERCEPTED by 94-C.Jordan at DET 0. TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on NO-94-C.Jordan, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs. SIDELINE WARNING - NEW ORLEANS, 2nd. DET 38 – NO 51

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NO 4th & 1 at the 55
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.78 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (12:09) 6-T.Morstead punts 52 yards to DET 3, Center-49-Z.Wood, downed by NO-26-P.Williams. PENALTY on DET-28-Q.Diggs, Offensive Holding, 1 yard, enforced at DET 3. Saints' #54 N.Stupar prevented the ball from going into the endzone, and it was downed by #26 P.J.Williams.

  • Q1 DET 4th & 6 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (4:03) 18-J.Locke punts 49 yards to NO 15, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 19-T.Ginn to NO 15 for no gain (39-J.Agnew). PENALTY on NO-33-T.Edmunds, Offensive Holding, 8 yards, enforced at NO 16.

  • Q1 NO 4th & 10 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 88%

    (:09) 3-W.Lutz 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 1 at the 22
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.22 EP
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 89%

    (6:44) 5-M.Prater 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-18-J.Locke.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 1 at the 41
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71% p(FG) 53%

    (3:33) 41-A.Kamara right end to DET 35 for 6 yards (59-T.Whitehead). Brees handed off to #42 Z.Line, who then lateralled to #41 A.Kamara.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 5 at the 5
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 98%

    (:16) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 87-D.Fells to NO 1 for 4 yards (23-M.Lattimore; 32-K.Vaccaro). Pass 2, YAC 2

  • Q3 DET 4th & 10 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (13:39) 18-J.Locke punts 49 yards to NO 26, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, out of bounds.

  • Q3 DET 4th & 9 at the 38
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 61%

    (12:40) 5-M.Prater 56 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-18-J.Locke.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 4 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53%

    (15:00) 6-T.Morstead punts 46 yards to DET 29, Center-49-Z.Wood. 39-J.Agnew to NO 45 for 26 yards (34-J.Hardee).

  • Q4 NO 4th & 3 at the 84
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.68 EP
    p(convert) 59%

    (11:15) 6-T.Morstead punts 58 yards to DET 26, Center-49-Z.Wood. 39-J.Agnew for 74 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on DET-39-J.Agnew, Taunting, 15 yards, enforced between downs.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 5 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (9:11) 6-T.Morstead punts 44 yards to DET 20, Center-49-Z.Wood, out of bounds.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 13 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (7:36) 18-J.Locke punts 49 yards to NO 10, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 19-T.Ginn. PENALTY on NO-42-Z.Line, Offensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at NO 10.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 3 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 57%

    (5:23) 6-T.Morstead punts 57 yards to DET 11, Center-49-Z.Wood. 39-J.Agnew MUFFS catch, touched at DET 1, and recovers at DET 1. 39-J.Agnew to DET 1 for no gain (34-J.Hardee). SIDELINE WARNING - New Orleans, 1st.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 5 at the 50 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 31%

    (4:24) 6-T.Morstead punts 38 yards to DET 12, Center-49-Z.Wood. 39-J.Agnew to DET 18 for 6 yards (33-T.Edmunds). NO-54-N.Stupar was injured during the play.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 4 at the 39 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.01 EP
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 58%

    (1:13) 6-T.Morstead punts 39 yards to end zone, Center-49-Z.Wood, Touchback.