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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 1 at the 55

New Orleans Saints 0 – Detroit Lions 0

What Actually Happened

(12:09) 6-T.Morstead punts 52 yards to DET 3, Center-49-Z.Wood, downed by NO-26-P.Williams. PENALTY on DET-28-Q.Diggs, Offensive Holding, 1 yard, enforced at DET 3. Saints' #54 N.Stupar prevented the ball from going into the endzone, and it was downed by #26 P.J.Williams.

The Three Options

GO +1.47 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +3.10 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 55, worth -2.76 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.31 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 16, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.78 EP