4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 5 at the 5

Detroit Lions 10 – New Orleans Saints 31

What Actually Happened

(:16) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 87-D.Fells to NO 1 for 4 yards (23-M.Lattimore; 32-K.Vaccaro). Pass 2, YAC 2

The Three Options

GO +2.59 EP
What Happened
  • 37% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.86 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 5, worth +0.09 EP
KICK +2.86 EP
Model's Pick
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.92 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 21, worth -0.06 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model