4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 9 at the 38

Detroit Lions 10 – New Orleans Saints 31

What Actually Happened

(12:40) 5-M.Prater 56 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-18-J.Locke.

The Three Options

GO -0.26 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.02 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 38, worth -2.26 EP
KICK -0.11 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.69 EP
  • 39% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 47, worth -2.88 EP
PUNT -0.48 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model