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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 3 at the 68

New Orleans Saints 45 – Detroit Lions 38

What Actually Happened

(5:23) 6-T.Morstead punts 57 yards to DET 11, Center-49-Z.Wood. 39-J.Agnew MUFFS catch, touched at DET 1, and recovers at DET 1. 39-J.Agnew to DET 1 for no gain (34-J.Hardee). SIDELINE WARNING - New Orleans, 1st.

The Three Options

GO -0.82 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.31 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 68, worth -3.62 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -0.95 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 26, worth -0.95 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model