Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 6 at the 64

Detroit Lions 7 – New Orleans Saints 14

What Actually Happened

(4:03) 18-J.Locke punts 49 yards to NO 15, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 19-T.Ginn to NO 15 for no gain (39-J.Agnew). PENALTY on NO-33-T.Edmunds, Offensive Holding, 8 yards, enforced at NO 16.

The Three Options

GO -1.41 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +1.93 EP
59% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 64, worth -3.77 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model