Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 6 at the 71

Indianapolis Colts 13 – Tennessee Titans 9

(14:12) (Punt formation) 2-R.Sanchez punts 58 yards to TEN 13, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 14-E.Weems to TEN 26 for 13 yards (33-R.Turbin).

The Three Options

GO -1.78 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.62 EP
59% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 71, worth -4.18 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model