Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- TEN offense: -0.148 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
- QB edge to TEN: Marcus Mariota (TEN) +0.166 vs Jacoby Brissett (IND) -0.117 EPA/dropback (TEN starting Marcus Mariota in place of Matt Cassel)
- IND offense: -0.057 EPA/play over its last 8 games (19th in the league)
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 6
IND
TEN
Pulled fresh for 2017 week 6 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 11 pts on margin, 13 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 11:20 FG TEN (11:20) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern. IND 0 – TEN 3
- Q1 06:49 FG IND (6:49) (Field Goal formation) 4-A.Vinatieri 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-2-R.Sanchez. IND 3 – TEN 3
- Q1 00:52 FG TEN (:52) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern. IND 3 – TEN 6
- Q2 10:59 TD IND (10:59) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 84-J.Doyle for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 9 – TEN 6
- Q2 04:15 FG TEN (4:15) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern. IND 10 – TEN 9
- Q2 00:19 FG IND (:19) (Field Goal formation) 4-A.Vinatieri 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-2-R.Sanchez. IND 13 – TEN 9
- Q3 13:58 TD IND (13:58) 8-M.Mariota pass short right intended for 89-P.Supernaw INTERCEPTED by 51-J.Simon at TEN 26. 51-J.Simon for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 19 – TEN 9
- Q3 09:48 FG TEN (9:48) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern. IND 19 – TEN 12
- Q3 04:40 FG TEN (4:40) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern. IND 19 – TEN 15
- Q4 10:05 TD TEN (10:05) 29-D.Murray up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 19 – TEN 21
- Q4 07:32 FG IND (7:32) (Field Goal formation) 4-A.Vinatieri 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-2-R.Sanchez. IND 22 – TEN 22
- Q4 05:37 TD TEN (5:37) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass deep right to 13-T.Taylor for 53 yards, TOUCHDOWN [95-J.Hankins]. PENALTY on IND-95-J.Hankins, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced between downs. IND 22 – TEN 28
- Q4 01:01 TD TEN (1:01) 22-D.Henry left end for 72 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 22 – TEN 35
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 TEN 4th & 7 at the 30Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33% p(FG) 75%
(11:20) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.
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Q1 IND 4th & 11 at the 18Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26% p(FG) 92%
(6:49) (Field Goal formation) 4-A.Vinatieri 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-2-R.Sanchez.
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Q1 TEN 4th & 5 at the 14Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36% p(FG) 94%
(:52) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.
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Q2 TEN 4th & 2 at the 22Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.55 EPp(convert) 53% p(FG) 88%
(4:15) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.
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Q2 IND 4th & 6 at the 6Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33% p(FG) 98%
(:19) (Field Goal formation) 4-A.Vinatieri 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-2-R.Sanchez.
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Q3 IND 4th & 6 at the 71Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41%
(14:12) (Punt formation) 2-R.Sanchez punts 58 yards to TEN 13, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 14-E.Weems to TEN 26 for 13 yards (33-R.Turbin).
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Q3 TEN 4th & 5 at the 30Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38% p(FG) 75%
(9:48) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.
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Q3 IND 4th & 5 at the 83Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 46%
(8:44) (Punt formation) 2-R.Sanchez punts 49 yards to TEN 34, Center-46-L.Rhodes, out of bounds.
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Q3 TEN 4th & 4 at the 60Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 46%
(7:41) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 44 yards to IND 16, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 11-Q.Bray.
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Q3 TEN 4th & 5 at the 5Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35% p(FG) 98%
(4:40) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.
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Q3 IND 4th & 6 at the 76Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42%
(3:35) (Punt formation) 2-R.Sanchez punts 53 yards to TEN 23, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 14-E.Weems to TEN 25 for 2 yards (42-K.Moore; 59-J.George). PENALTY on TEN-89-P.Supernaw, Unnecessary Roughness, 12 yards, enforced at TEN 25. Penalty on TEN-53-D.Bates, Offensive Holding, declined.
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Q4 TEN 4th & 1 at the 43Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 66% p(FG) 42%
(15:00) 8-M.Mariota up the middle to IND 42 for 1 yard (99-A.Woods).
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Q4 IND 4th & 20 at the 34Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 20% p(FG) 66%
(7:32) (Field Goal formation) 4-A.Vinatieri 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-2-R.Sanchez.
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Q4 IND 4th & 1 at the 13 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 64% p(FG) 95%
(2:26) 7-J.Brissett sacked at TEN 13 for 0 yards (59-W.Woodyard). Indianapolis challenged the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1 at 02:19.)