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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 5 at the 30

Tennessee Titans 9 – Indianapolis Colts 19

What Actually Happened

(9:48) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

The Three Options

GO +0.96 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.46 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 30, worth -1.22 EP
KICK +1.12 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 40, worth -1.96 EP
PUNT +0.08 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth +0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model