Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 6 at the 76

Indianapolis Colts 19 – Tennessee Titans 15

What Actually Happened

(3:35) (Punt formation) 2-R.Sanchez punts 53 yards to TEN 23, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 14-E.Weems to TEN 25 for 2 yards (42-K.Moore; 59-J.George). PENALTY on TEN-89-P.Supernaw, Unnecessary Roughness, 12 yards, enforced at TEN 25. Penalty on TEN-53-D.Bates, Offensive Holding, declined.

The Three Options

GO -2.10 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.22 EP
58% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 76, worth -4.51 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model