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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
Tennessee Titans
4th & 1 at the 43
Tennessee Titans 15 – Indianapolis Colts 19
What Actually Happened
(15:00) 8-M.Mariota up the middle to IND 42 for 1 yard (99-A.Woods).
The Three Options
GO
+1.35 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.06 EP
- 34% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 43, worth -2.03 EP
KICK
-0.61 EP
- 42% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.20 EP
- 58% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 49, worth -2.65 EP
PUNT
-0.06 EP
- Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 12, worth -0.06 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
