4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 1 at the 13

Indianapolis Colts 22 – Tennessee Titans 29

What Actually Happened

(2:26) 7-J.Brissett sacked at TEN 13 for 0 yards (59-W.Woodyard). Indianapolis challenged the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1 at 02:19.)

The Three Options

GO +2.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +4.65 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 13, worth -0.51 EP
KICK +1.92 EP
  • 95% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 23, worth -0.80 EP
PUNT -0.46 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model