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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 5 at the 14

Tennessee Titans 3 – Indianapolis Colts 3

What Actually Happened

(:52) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

The Three Options

GO +2.23 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.38 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 14, worth +0.42 EP
KICK +2.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.67 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 24, worth -0.33 EP
PUNT +0.61 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth +0.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model