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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 12 at the 65

Jacksonville Jaguars 14 – Los Angeles Rams 17

What Actually Happened

(9:34) 3-B.Nortman punts 53 yards to LA 12, Center-43-M.Overton, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.56 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.88 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 65, worth -3.45 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 23, worth -0.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model