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Los Angeles Rams

HC Sean McVay
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JAX Home

Jacksonville Jaguars

HC Doug Marrone
Sunday 2017-10-15 · 16:05 EverBank Field, Jacksonville US ☀️ Clear Spread 1.0 O/U 42.0

Win Probability

LA
28.6%
JAX
71.4%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • JAX defense: -0.225 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • LA offense: -0.109 EPA/play over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • JAX offense: -0.052 EPA/play over its last 8 games (17th in the league)
  • QB edge to JAX: Blake Bortles (JAX) -0.110 vs Jared Goff (LA) -0.137 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

LA 17
–
JAX 24
Projected margin: JAX by 7 Projected total: 41

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 6

LA

Troy Hill CB Doubtful Shoulder
Mark Barron LB Questionable Knee
Lamarcus Joyner S Questionable Hamstring

JAX

Brandon Linder C Out Illness
Arrelious Benn WR Questionable Groin
Patrick Omameh G Questionable Hip

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 6 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

LA 27
–
JAX 17

Prediction missed by 17 pts on margin, 3 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 15:00 TD LA 2-J.Myers kicks 68 yards from JAX 35 to LA -3. 10-P.Cooper for 103 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 6 – JAX 0
  • Q1 14:46 TD JAX (14:46) 27-L.Fournette up the middle for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 7 – JAX 6
  • Q1 08:59 FG LA (8:59) 4-G.Zuerlein 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker. LA 10 – JAX 7
  • Q1 07:00 TD JAX (7:00) 5-B.Bortles pass short right to 33-C.Ivory for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 10 – JAX 13
  • Q1 00:28 TD LA (:28) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 81-G.Everett for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down by contact ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field was confirmed. LA 16 – JAX 14
  • Q2 02:32 TD LA (2:32) 3-B.Nortman punt is BLOCKED by 58-C.Littleton, Center-43-M.Overton, RECOVERED by LA-34-M.Brown at JAX 8. 34-M.Brown for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 23 – JAX 14
  • Q3 05:20 FG JAX (5:20) 2-J.Myers 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-M.Overton, Holder-3-B.Nortman. LA 24 – JAX 17
  • Q4 02:36 FG LA (2:36) 4-G.Zuerlein 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker. LA 27 – JAX 17

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LA 4th & 1 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.14 EP
    p(convert) 67%

    (13:31) 6-J.Hekker punts 67 yards to end zone, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Touchback.

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 12 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (10:30) 3-B.Nortman punts 16 yards to JAX 45, Center-43-M.Overton, out of bounds.

  • Q1 LA 4th & 2 at the 37
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.14 EP
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 56%

    (8:59) 4-G.Zuerlein 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

  • Q1 LA 4th & 19 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23%

    (5:26) 6-J.Hekker punts 53 yards to JAX 31, Center-44-J.McQuaide, downed by LA-58-C.Littleton.

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 10 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (3:50) 3-B.Nortman punts 47 yards to LA 22, Center-43-M.Overton. 10-P.Cooper to LA 34 for 12 yards (17-A.Benn).

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 11 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 21%

    (12:47) 3-B.Nortman punts 28 yards to LA 23, Center-43-M.Overton, out of bounds.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 6 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (11:22) 6-J.Hekker punts 57 yards to JAX 16, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 19-M.McCaffrey ran ob at JAX 16 for no gain.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 12 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (9:34) 3-B.Nortman punts 53 yards to LA 12, Center-43-M.Overton, out of bounds.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.09 EP
    p(convert) 67%

    (6:58) 6-J.Hekker punts 44 yards to JAX 22, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 19-M.McCaffrey.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 5 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (5:58) 3-B.Nortman punts 52 yards to LA 21, Center-43-M.Overton. 10-P.Cooper ran ob at LA 26 for 5 yards (53-B.Brown).

  • Q2 LA 4th & 9 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 21%

    (4:04) 6-J.Hekker punts 33 yards to JAX 18, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 19-M.McCaffrey.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 9 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (2:32) 3-B.Nortman punt is BLOCKED by 58-C.Littleton, Center-43-M.Overton, RECOVERED by LA-34-M.Brown at JAX 8. 34-M.Brown for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 6 at the 45
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 34%

    (:09) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short middle to 80-J.O'Shaughnessy to LA 36 for 9 yards (23-N.Robey).

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 6 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 30%

    (11:53) 3-B.Nortman punts 36 yards to LA 11, Center-43-M.Overton, fair catch by 10-P.Cooper.

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 10 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 86%

    (5:20) 2-J.Myers 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-M.Overton, Holder-3-B.Nortman.

  • Q3 LA 4th & 11 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 30%

    (1:22) 6-J.Hekker punts 32 yards to JAX 15, Center-44-J.McQuaide, downed by LA-89-T.Higbee.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 20 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 20%

    (10:08) 6-J.Hekker punts 36 yards to JAX 19, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 19-M.McCaffrey.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 3 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53%

    (7:51) 3-B.Nortman punts 41 yards to LA 33, Center-43-M.Overton. 10-P.Cooper MUFFS catch, and recovers at LA 32. 10-P.Cooper to LA 32 for no gain (29-L.Pitts).

  • Q4 LA 4th & 4 at the 11 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 96%

    (2:36) 4-G.Zuerlein 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.