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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 9 at the 51

Los Angeles Rams 17 – Jacksonville Jaguars 14

What Actually Happened

(4:04) 6-J.Hekker punts 33 yards to JAX 18, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 19-M.McCaffrey.

The Three Options

GO -1.07 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +2.94 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 51, worth -2.76 EP
KICK -1.78 EP
  • 21% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 79% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -2.77 EP
PUNT -0.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 14, worth -0.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model