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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 9 at the 81

Jacksonville Jaguars 14 – Los Angeles Rams 17

What Actually Happened

(2:32) 3-B.Nortman punt is BLOCKED by 58-C.Littleton, Center-43-M.Overton, RECOVERED by LA-34-M.Brown at JAX 8. 34-M.Brown for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO -2.40 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +1.35 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 81, worth -4.51 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -1.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 38, worth -1.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model