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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 12 at the 71

Jacksonville Jaguars 7 – Los Angeles Rams 7

What Actually Happened

(10:30) 3-B.Nortman punts 16 yards to JAX 45, Center-43-M.Overton, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.00 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.43 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 71, worth -3.95 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -0.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 29, worth -0.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model