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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 4 at the 11

Los Angeles Rams 24 – Jacksonville Jaguars 17

What Actually Happened

(2:36) 4-G.Zuerlein 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +0.88 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +3.98 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 11, worth -0.96 EP
KICK +1.11 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.22 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 22, worth -1.40 EP
PUNT -0.96 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model