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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 2 at the 37

Los Angeles Rams 7 – Jacksonville Jaguars 7

What Actually Happened

(8:59) 4-G.Zuerlein 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +0.76 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.54 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 37, worth -2.26 EP
KICK -0.38 EP
What Happened
  • 56% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.65 EP
  • 44% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 46, worth -2.95 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.14 EP