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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 10 at the 69

Jacksonville Jaguars 14 – Los Angeles Rams 10

What Actually Happened

(3:50) 3-B.Nortman punts 47 yards to LA 22, Center-43-M.Overton. 10-P.Cooper to LA 34 for 12 yards (17-A.Benn).

The Three Options

GO -1.70 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.37 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 69, worth -3.71 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -0.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 27, worth -0.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model