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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 3 at the 55

New York Jets 14 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(9:53) 4-L.Edwards punts 48 yards to NE 7, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-32-J.Burris.

The Three Options

GO -0.05 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.81 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 55, worth -2.88 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.91 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 16, worth -0.91 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.86 EP