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New England Patriots

HC Bill Belichick
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New York Jets

HC Todd Bowles
Sunday 2017-10-15 · 13:00 MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford US ☀️ Clear Spread -9.0 O/U 48.5

Win Probability

NE
68.4%
NYJ
31.6%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NYJ offense: -0.188 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • NE offense: +0.106 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • QB edge to NE: Josh McCown (NYJ) -0.066 vs Tom Brady (NE) +0.237 EPA/dropback
  • NE defense: +0.080 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • NE on 3 more days rest than NYJ
  • NYJ defense: -0.036 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (14th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

NE 23
–
NYJ 18
Projected margin: NE by 5 Projected total: 41

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 6

NE

Eric Rowe CB Out Groin
Rex Burkhead RB Questionable Ribs

NYJ

Bilal Powell RB Questionable Calf
Muhammad Wilkerson DE Questionable Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 6 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NE 24
–
NYJ 17

Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 0 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:13 TD NYJ (9:13) 15-J.McCown pass short right to 88-A.Seferian-Jenkins for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NE 0 – NYJ 6
  • Q2 12:26 TD NYJ (12:26) (Shotgun) 15-J.McCown pass deep left to 14-J.Kerley for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN [98-T.Flowers]. NE 0 – NYJ 13
  • Q2 05:25 TD NE (5:25) 33-D.Lewis right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. NE 6 – NYJ 14
  • Q2 00:12 TD NE (:12) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 87-R.Gronkowski for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 13 – NYJ 14
  • Q3 11:30 TD NE (11:30) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 87-R.Gronkowski for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on NYJ-21-M.Claiborne, Defensive Holding, declined. NE 20 – NYJ 14
  • Q4 14:13 FG NE (14:13) 3-S.Gostkowski 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. NE 24 – NYJ 14
  • Q4 03:43 FG NYJ (3:43) 7-C.Catanzaro 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards. NE 24 – NYJ 17

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NE 4th & 9 at the 41
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 43%

    (5:39) 6-R.Allen punts 37 yards to NYJ 4, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-31-J.Jones.

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 3 at the 89
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EP
    p(convert) 54%

    (4:04) 4-L.Edwards punts 41 yards to NE 48, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 80-D.Amendola to NE 47 for -1 yards (45-R.Miles).

  • Q2 NE 4th & 8 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (11:22) 6-R.Allen punts 35 yards to NYJ 38, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 14-J.Kerley.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 3 at the 55
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.86 EP
    p(convert) 50%

    (9:53) 4-L.Edwards punts 48 yards to NE 7, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-32-J.Burris.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 2 at the 65
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EP
    p(convert) 58%

    (3:26) 4-L.Edwards punts 51 yards to NE 14, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 80-D.Amendola to NE 21 for 7 yards (51-J.Stanford).

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 8 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (1:49) 4-L.Edwards punts 47 yards to NE 29, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 80-D.Amendola to NE 43 for 14 yards (45-R.Miles).

  • Q2 NE 4th & 10 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 74%

    (1:11) 3-S.Gostkowski 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 1 at the 34
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 62%

    (4:49) 15-J.McCown pass short left intended for 83-E.Tomlinson INTERCEPTED by 32-D.McCourty at NE 28. 32-D.McCourty to NE 28 for no gain (83-E.Tomlinson).

  • Q4 NE 4th & 8 at the 9
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 96%

    (14:13) 3-S.Gostkowski 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 7 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (6:41) 6-R.Allen punts 40 yards to NYJ 37, Center-49-J.Cardona. 14-J.Kerley to NYJ 35 for -2 yards (31-J.Jones).

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 9 at the 10 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 96%

    (3:43) 7-C.Catanzaro 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 12 at the 85 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (2:05) 6-R.Allen punts 48 yards to NYJ 37, Center-49-J.Cardona. 14-J.Kerley to NYJ 37 for no gain (49-J.Cardona). PENALTY on NYJ-38-X.Coleman, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at NYJ 37.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 12 at the 75 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.32 EP
    p(convert) 30%

    (1:12) (Shotgun) 15-J.McCown pass deep middle to 11-R.Anderson to NE 43 for 32 yards (30-D.Harmon).

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 16 at the 49 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.36 EP
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 23%

    (:20) (Shotgun) 15-J.McCown pass incomplete deep right to 14-J.Kerley. NYJ-11-R.Anderson was injured during the play.