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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 8 at the 76

New York Jets 14 – New England Patriots 7

What Actually Happened

(1:49) 4-L.Edwards punts 47 yards to NE 29, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 80-D.Amendola to NE 43 for 14 yards (45-R.Miles).

The Three Options

GO -2.06 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.45 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 76, worth -4.06 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.33 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 34, worth -1.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model