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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 1 at the 34

New York Jets 14 – New England Patriots 21

What Actually Happened

(4:49) 15-J.McCown pass short left intended for 83-E.Tomlinson INTERCEPTED by 32-D.McCourty at NE 28. 32-D.McCourty to NE 28 for no gain (83-E.Tomlinson).

The Three Options

GO +1.89 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.88 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 34, worth -1.84 EP
KICK +0.15 EP
  • 62% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 38% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 44, worth -2.58 EP
PUNT -0.28 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model