Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 7 at the 77

New England Patriots 24 – New York Jets 14

(6:41) 6-R.Allen punts 40 yards to NYJ 37, Center-49-J.Cardona. 14-J.Kerley to NYJ 35 for -2 yards (31-J.Jones).

The Three Options

GO -1.83 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.48 EP
58% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 77, worth -4.27 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model