Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 12 at the 85

New England Patriots 24 – New York Jets 17

What Actually Happened

(2:05) 6-R.Allen punts 48 yards to NYJ 37, Center-49-J.Cardona. 14-J.Kerley to NYJ 37 for no gain (49-J.Cardona). PENALTY on NYJ-38-X.Coleman, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at NYJ 37.

The Three Options

GO -2.06 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +1.25 EP
65% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 85, worth -3.82 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model