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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 12 at the 75

New York Jets 17 – New England Patriots 24

What Actually Happened

(1:12) (Shotgun) 15-J.McCown pass deep middle to 11-R.Anderson to NE 43 for 32 yards (30-D.Harmon).

The Three Options

GO -0.72 EP
What Happened
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +0.97 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 75, worth -1.45 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -0.41 EP
Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 32, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.32 EP