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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 15 at the 72

Kansas City Chiefs 3 – Pittsburgh Steelers 9

What Actually Happened

(12:26) 2-D.Colquitt punts 39 yards to PIT 33, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-57-K.Pierre-Louis.

The Three Options

GO -2.00 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.56 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 72, worth -3.96 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -0.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 30, worth -0.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model