4th & Data
EN ES
← Home
PIT Away

Pittsburgh Steelers

HC Mike Tomlin
@
KC Home

Kansas City Chiefs

HC Andy Reid
Sunday 2017-10-15 · 16:25 Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City US 🌧 Rain Spread 3.5 O/U 46.5

Win Probability

PIT
35.6%
KC
64.4%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • KC offense: +0.149 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • Alex Smith (KC): +0.149 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • PIT defense: -0.106 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

PIT 20
–
KC 24
Projected margin: KC by 4 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 6

PIT

Ramon Foster G Questionable Back

KC

Chris Conley WR Out Achilles
Laurent Duvernay-Tardif G Out Knee
Steven Terrell S Out Concussion
Mitch Morse C Out Foot

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 6 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

PIT 19
–
KC 13

Prediction missed by 10 pts on margin, 12 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 06:25 FG KC (6:25) 7-H.Butker 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. PIT 2 – KC 3
  • Q1 07:53 SAF PIT (7:53) 11-A.Smith Aborted. 73-Z.Fulton FUMBLES at KC 9, ball out of bounds in End Zone, SAFETY. PIT 2 – KC 0
  • Q2 15:00 TD PIT (15:00) 26-L.Bell up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on PIT-26-L.Bell, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs. PIT 8 – KC 3
  • Q2 02:11 FG PIT (2:11) 9-C.Boswell 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry. PIT 12 – KC 3
  • Q4 06:26 TD KC (6:26) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass deep left to 13-D.Thomas for 57 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 12 – KC 9
  • Q4 03:34 TD PIT (3:34) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass deep left to 84-A.Brown for 51 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC-39-T.Mitchell was injured during the play. PIT 18 – KC 10
  • Q4 02:21 FG KC (2:21) 7-H.Butker 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. PIT 19 – KC 13

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 10 at the 41
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 42%

    (8:51) 4-J.Berry punts 30 yards to KC 11, Center-57-K.Canaday. 10-T.Hill to KC 16 for 5 yards (20-R.Golden).

  • Q1 KC 4th & 6 at the 28
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 76%

    (6:25) 7-H.Butker 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

  • Q2 KC 4th & 15 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (12:26) 2-D.Colquitt punts 39 yards to PIT 33, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-57-K.Pierre-Louis.

  • Q2 KC 4th & 6 at the 44
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 34%

    (9:02) 2-D.Colquitt punts 43 yards to PIT 1, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-41-J.Winchester. Pittsburgh challenged the kick downed ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #2 at 08:51.)

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 6 at the 6
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 97%

    (2:11) 9-C.Boswell 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry.

  • Q3 KC 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (12:41) 2-D.Colquitt punts 54 yards to PIT 17, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 84-A.Brown.

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 6 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (10:01) 4-J.Berry punts 39 yards to KC 25, Center-57-K.Canaday, out of bounds.

  • Q3 KC 4th & 10 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (8:23) 2-D.Colquitt punts 54 yards to PIT 11, Center-41-J.Winchester. 84-A.Brown MUFFS catch, and recovers at PIT 11. 84-A.Brown to PIT 11 for no gain (31-A.Hunt).

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 7 at the 40
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 45%

    (4:06) 4-J.Berry punts 40 yards to end zone, Center-57-K.Canaday, Touchback. PENALTY on KC-25-K.Acker, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at KC 20.

  • Q4 KC 4th & 2 at the 4
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 98%

    (12:54) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass incomplete short middle to 84-D.Harris (28-S.Davis).

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 6 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 17%

    (9:14) 4-J.Berry punts 36 yards to KC 16, Center-57-K.Canaday. 10-T.Hill to KC 18 for 2 yards (44-T.Matakevich).

  • Q4 KC 4th & 10 at the 15 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 93%

    (2:21) 7-H.Butker 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 8 at the 74 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (1:59) 4-J.Berry punts 62 yards to KC 12, Center-57-K.Canaday. 10-T.Hill pushed ob at KC 44 for 32 yards (44-T.Matakevich; 45-R.Nix).

  • Q4 KC 4th & 18 at the 48 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 25%

    (:58) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass incomplete deep middle to 13-D.Thomas [97-C.Heyward].