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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 6 at the 44

Kansas City Chiefs 3 – Pittsburgh Steelers 9

What Actually Happened

(9:02) 2-D.Colquitt punts 43 yards to PIT 1, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-41-J.Winchester. Pittsburgh challenged the kick downed ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #2 at 08:51.)

The Three Options

GO +0.42 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.79 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 44, worth -1.90 EP
KICK -0.89 EP
  • 34% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.27 EP
  • 66% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.51 EP
PUNT +0.16 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 12, worth +0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model