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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 6 at the 6

Pittsburgh Steelers 9 – Kansas City Chiefs 3

What Actually Happened

(2:11) 9-C.Boswell 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry.

The Three Options

GO +1.54 EP
  • 35% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.58 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 6, worth -0.61 EP
KICK +1.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.64 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 21, worth -1.08 EP
PUNT -0.73 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model