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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 10 at the 65

Kansas City Chiefs 3 – Pittsburgh Steelers 12

What Actually Happened

(8:23) 2-D.Colquitt punts 54 yards to PIT 11, Center-41-J.Winchester. 84-A.Brown MUFFS catch, and recovers at PIT 11. 84-A.Brown to PIT 11 for no gain (31-A.Hunt).

The Three Options

GO -1.56 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.40 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 65, worth -3.71 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.72 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 23, worth -0.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model