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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 7 at the 40

Pittsburgh Steelers 12 – Kansas City Chiefs 3

What Actually Happened

(4:06) 4-J.Berry punts 40 yards to end zone, Center-57-K.Canaday, Touchback. PENALTY on KC-25-K.Acker, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at KC 20.

The Three Options

GO -0.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.72 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 40, worth -2.14 EP
KICK -0.76 EP
  • 45% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 55% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -2.83 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP