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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 2 at the 4

Kansas City Chiefs 3 – Pittsburgh Steelers 12

What Actually Happened

(12:54) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass incomplete short middle to 84-D.Harris (28-S.Davis).

The Three Options

GO +3.58 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.21 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 4, worth +0.49 EP
KICK +2.03 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.09 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.68 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model