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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 10 at the 41

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

What Actually Happened

(8:51) 4-J.Berry punts 30 yards to KC 11, Center-57-K.Canaday. 10-T.Hill to KC 16 for 5 yards (20-R.Golden).

The Three Options

GO -0.57 EP
Model's Pick
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.64 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 41, worth -2.47 EP
KICK -1.15 EP
  • 42% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.52 EP
  • 58% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -3.06 EP
PUNT -0.66 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 12, worth -0.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model