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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 10 at the 15

Kansas City Chiefs 10 – Pittsburgh Steelers 19

What Actually Happened

(2:21) 7-H.Butker 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +1.21 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.39 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 15, worth -0.54 EP
KICK +1.79 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.00 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25, worth -1.01 EP
PUNT -0.44 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model