Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 8 at the 74

Pittsburgh Steelers 19 – Kansas City Chiefs 13

(1:59) 4-J.Berry punts 62 yards to KC 12, Center-57-K.Canaday. 10-T.Hill pushed ob at KC 44 for 32 yards (44-T.Matakevich; 45-R.Nix).

The Three Options

GO -1.66 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.12 EP
62% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 74, worth -3.40 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model