4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 10 at the 10

Arizona Cardinals 21 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

What Actually Happened

(5:33) 4-P.Dawson 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Drescher, Holder-2-A.Lee. Penalty on TB-23-C.Conte, Defensive Offside, declined.

The Three Options

GO +1.44 EP
  • 27% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.90 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 10, worth -0.23 EP
KICK +1.87 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.97 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.72 EP
PUNT -0.27 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model