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Tampa Bay Buccaneers

HC Dirk Koetter
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Arizona Cardinals

HC Bruce Arians
Sunday 2017-10-15 · 16:05 University of Phoenix Stadium, Glendale US 🏟 Dome Spread -2.5 O/U 46.5

Win Probability

TB
48.4%
ARI
51.6%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • ARI defense: -0.064 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • ARI offense: -0.035 EPA/play over its last 8 games (14th in the league)
  • Jameis Winston (TB): +0.125 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • TB on 3 more days rest than ARI

Predicted Final Score

TB 23
–
ARI 24
Projected margin: ARI by 1 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 6

TB

Josh Robinson S Out Concussion
Ryan Russell DE Out Shoulder
Kwon Alexander LB Out Hamstring
Keith Tandy S Out Hip
Robert Ayers DE Questionable Back
Ali Marpet C Questionable Illness
Lavonte David LB Questionable Ankle
T.J. Ward S Questionable Hip

ARI

Olsen Pierre DT Out Ankle
Karlos Dansby LB Questionable Hamstring
Robert Nkemdiche DT Questionable Calf
Corey Peters DT Questionable Knee
Patrick Peterson CB Questionable Quadricep
Jared Veldheer T Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 6 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

TB 33
–
ARI 38

Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 24 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 12:00 TD ARI (12:00) 23-A.Peterson up the middle for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 0 – ARI 6
  • Q1 05:29 TD ARI (5:29) 3-C.Palmer pass short middle to 87-T.Niklas for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 0 – ARI 13
  • Q2 12:09 TD ARI (12:09) 3-C.Palmer pass short middle to 11-L.Fitzgerald for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 0 – ARI 20
  • Q2 05:33 FG ARI (5:33) 4-P.Dawson 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Drescher, Holder-2-A.Lee. Penalty on TB-23-C.Conte, Defensive Offside, declined. TB 0 – ARI 24
  • Q3 12:06 TD ARI (12:06) 3-C.Palmer pass short right to 12-J.Brown for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 0 – ARI 30
  • Q3 08:31 TD TB (8:31) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short right to 11-D.Jackson for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 6 – ARI 31
  • Q4 13:38 TD TB (13:38) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short middle to 84-C.Brate for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 12 – ARI 31
  • Q4 13:05 TD TB (13:05) 3-C.Palmer pass short left to 11-L.Fitzgerald to ARI 19 for 4 yards (54-L.David). FUMBLES (54-L.David), RECOVERED by TB-54-L.David at ARI 21. 54-L.David for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. TB 18 – ARI 31
  • Q4 07:22 TD ARI (7:22) 70-E.Boehm reported in as eligible. 23-A.Peterson right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on TB-90-C.Baker, Defensive Offside, declined. TB 20 – ARI 37
  • Q4 03:06 TD TB (3:06) 77-C.Benenoch reported in as eligible. 22-D.Martin up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. TB 26 – ARI 38
  • Q4 02:09 TD TB (2:09) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass deep right to 13-M.Evans for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 32 – ARI 38

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 TB 4th & 2 at the 48
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.87 EP
    p(convert) 57% p(FG) 36%

    (9:10) 9-B.Anger punts 34 yards to ARI 14, Center-65-G.Sanborn, fair catch by 33-K.Williams.

  • Q1 TB 4th & 4 at the 39
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.71 EP
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 58%

    (1:16) 9-B.Anger punts 34 yards to ARI 5, Center-65-G.Sanborn, fair catch by 33-K.Williams.

  • Q2 TB 4th & 10 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (11:44) 9-B.Anger punts 45 yards to ARI 30, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 21-P.Peterson to ARI 30 for no gain (52-C.Lynch).

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 10 at the 10
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 96%

    (5:33) 4-P.Dawson 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Drescher, Holder-2-A.Lee. Penalty on TB-23-C.Conte, Defensive Offside, declined.

  • Q2 TB 4th & 4 at the 39
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 58%

    (1:23) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass deep right to 84-C.Brate to ARI 18 for 21 yards (27-T.Branch).

  • Q2 TB 4th & 5 at the 5
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.31 EP
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 98%

    (:11) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass incomplete short middle to 13-M.Evans (21-P.Peterson).

  • Q3 TB 4th & 16 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 36%

    (5:13) 9-B.Anger punts 41 yards to ARI 7, Center-65-G.Sanborn, fair catch by 33-K.Williams.

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 9 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (1:31) 2-A.Lee punts 53 yards to TB 27, Center-49-J.Drescher. 18-B.Reedy to TB 37 for 10 yards (36-B.Baker; 96-K.Martin).

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 13 at the 41
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 53%

    (7:38) 2-A.Lee punts 40 yards to TB 1, Center-49-J.Drescher, downed by ARI-36-B.Baker.

  • Q4 TB 4th & 1 at the 1 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 63% p(FG) 99%

    (3:06) 77-C.Benenoch reported in as eligible. 22-D.Martin up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 2 at the 35 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 68%

    (2:38) (Shotgun) 3-C.Palmer pass incomplete short right to 12-J.Brown (21-J.Evans).