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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 4 at the 39

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Arizona Cardinals 24

What Actually Happened

(1:23) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass deep right to 84-C.Brate to ARI 18 for 21 yards (27-T.Branch).

The Three Options

GO +0.43 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.37 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 39, worth -1.94 EP
KICK +0.10 EP
  • 58% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 42% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 48, worth -2.63 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model